Needed: Better regional forecasts

NEW DELHI: Monsoon predictions and performance are invariably reduced to a single number - the all-India average rain figure on the basis of which a monsoon season is categorized normal, deficient or excess. But the number often hides more than it reveals.

A 'normal' monsoon could see a drought in some parts, excess rain in others where the tag is rendered meaningless.

"The single-figure all-India forecast is an exercise for government and policymakers. It holds little meaning for the end-user -the farmer," says Krishna AchutaRao at IIT Delhi's Centre for Atmospheric Sciences.

For instance, a forecast for an overall deficit monsoon is a signal to government to gear up anti-drought measures, but it would mislead those where rains are plentiful that year.What's needed, says AchutaRao, is more specific information that predicts how monsoon is likely to behave in a particular region and time.

"There should be more emphasis on regional and monthly forecasts as this information is likely to be of more use," he says. India's weather office's (IMD) forecast provides regional and month-wise predictions in the forecast issued in June.But IMD's statistical prediction model has a problem. For smaller time frames and zoomed-in specifics for regions, the forecast's margin of error increases. "The regional forecasts are not very good. Once they start looking good, they'd taken more seriously," says AchutaRao.

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