"People earlier voted for either one or the other alliance. Now they are confused over who to vote for," says political scientist Surendra Jondhale. The margins of victory, too, will be low, with many likely to win by 500-1,000 votes, feels scholar Aroon Tikekar, an authority on Mumbai. Thus, it will be possible to win a seat with a vote share of only 20-25%.
While BJP is expected to have the greatest advantage, an absolute majority for any one party may be difficult to achieve in a five-cornered contest, though analysts have written off MNS. "The party has no cadre and no senior leaders to bank on other than Raj Thackeray," says economist and social activist Vibhuti Patel.
"MNS won't surrender to Shiv Sena, but is now saying it does not have an enmity with Sena, which will confuse voters," says Jondhale.
Patel believes BJP will win OBC votes in Maharashtra, both on account of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who projects his OBC status, as well as the campaign led by the daughters of the late Gopinath Munde, one of BJP's tallest leaders in Maharashtra.
Mumbai's large Gujarati population is expected to vote as a block for BJP. Many of Maharashtra's Muslims and north Indians, too, may vote for BJP.
"While Udhav Thackeray says BJP has no cadre in the state, this is far from the truth. It is Sena that has no cadre. People may be drawn to the party by the emotional appeal over Bal Thackeray. BJP has a dedicated cadre in RSS, headquartered in Maharashtra. RSS has a devoted set of pracharaks in every city," says Tikekar.
He feels Sena's Marathi manoos appeal has lost steam among the urban youth, which knows it must work hard to succeed in life. "In Vidarbha, Sena will lose out as it doesn't support separate statehood for the region. In the Konkan belt, Sena will be up against Congress's Narayan Rane," he adds.
Many feel the Sena is largely an urban party, whose sons-of-the-soil rhetoric works best in a city like Mumbai, which attracts migrant labour, and not in the interiors of Maharashtra, where everybody speaks Marathi.
While Sena and MNS are viewed as anti-migrant, BJP is wooing north Indians in Mumbai by telling them how well migrants are treated in Gujarat, says Patel. "Ironically, even Sena and MNS are wooing north Indians in Mumbai," she adds.
Opinion is divided over NCP's performance. "Sharad Pawar has been around for 40 years and carefully nurtured his constituency," says Patel, adding that Pawar had set up schools, colleges, sugar mills and a host of other institutions, through which he created a system of patronage.
Jondhale points to the tremendous anger against NCP in rural Maharashtra, with many NCP activists deserting the party for Sena and BJP. "NCP is not a cadre-based party. People may respect Sharad Pawar for what he has done for them, but this may not translate into votes, given that leaders like Ajit Pawar and RR Patil have tarnished the party's image," says Tikekar.
Ex-CM Prithviraj Chavan, the face of Congress in Maharashtra, has a clean image but is not a leader rooted in the state, says Patel. "The Congress has a wide reach in the interiors of Maharashtra, with some families having supported the party for 100 years," says Tikekar.
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