Trinamool is desperate to notch up 30 on the score board but the unexpected reverse swing from BJP has pushed it on the back foot, making the slog overs far more exciting than expected at the start of the polls.
Trinamool expects two-three seats (Cooch Behar, Darjeeling and Balurghat) out of 10 in North Bengal but claims to have taken control of the game in the third phase, aiming to rout Left in at least eight of nine constituencies. The Left, however, puts its score at four in the third phase. Going by what leaders say, Trinamool and others are equally poised in the first three phases.
But this means Trinamool is in a do-or-die battle in the last two phases to hit the 30-mark.
This wouldn't have been a big deal for Trinamool, given the minimal presence of Congress in south Bengal and the Left slide. What bothers Mamata Banerjee is the saffron surge that is the buzz in buses, trains and addas all across Bengal.
In as many as eight seats - Asansol, Krishnagore, Bongaon, Barasat, Barrackpore, Dum Dum, Kolkata North and Jadavpur - BJP has thrown in everything to queer the Trinamool pitch, even if its candidates fail to win any of them.
Modi is going for the kill. He has been to Serampore and Asansol and is coming to Barasat, Krishnagore and Kankurgachhi (Kolkata North) on May 7 before they go to polls on May 12. These are apart from other constituencies - Basirhat, Joynagar, Mathurapur and Bankura - where Trinamool faces a challenge from Left Front.
Sensing the anti-incumbency and the saffron surge in south Bengal, Mamata is gunning for Narendra Modi, fearing that BJP will cut into her vote bank. Left Front chairman Biman Bose has also been targeting BJP - leaving out Congress - in the last two phases.
BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi isn't in a mood to miss out on this opportunity. He is eying some seats in south Bengal, harking back to the Jansangh days when Shyamaprasad Mookerjee won Calcutta South West seat in 1952, and Haripada Bharati polled 24.34% votes in Calcutta North West in 1967. State BJP president Rahul Sinha is confident of wresting Kolkata North (Calcutta North West and Calcutta North East clubbed) from Trinamool.
While Trinamool has gone silent on Election Commission after its initial assault in the first two phases, the Opposition - Left Front, BJP and Congress - have started piling on the pressure on EC to stop "rigging" by Trinamool.
"We have been intimating EC since February 6. On March 24, we wrote to EC narrating our experience during the panchayat polls. We specifically mentioned Bhangar and Canning East assembly segments, where elections had turned into a farce. There are other constituencies as well. EC must ensure that people cast their vote," said Sujan Chakrabarty, CPM candidate for Jadavpur.
However, CPM veteran Basudeb Acharia isn't banking on EC. "Our experience in the third phase has been bad. I have told our party activists to stay put in polling booths despite the terror tactic by Trinamool. We have deputed polling agents in every booth. We won't give in to pressure," said Acharia.
BJP leaders, on the other hand, are annoyed with infiltration from neighbouring Birbhum via Pandebeswar in Asansol parliamentary constituency. They complain that a section of the administration has sided with Trinamool. The desperation on either side is evident from comments their leaders are making.
Modi began with development and jobs but finally raised the infiltration issue with an eye on constituencies in bordering districts. He is targeting a consolidation of Hindu votes in Krishnagore and Asansol that have substantial Muslim population. This tactic is likely to have an impact on the refugee settlements (those who came to West Bengal before 1971) of Nadia, North 24-Parganas among others. Threatened with the erosion in refugee settlements, Trinamool and Left have strongly reacted to Modi's remarks with Mamata demanding his arrest.
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